(Bloomberg) — A Nov CONQUEST for Donald Trump would be more beneficial to investors holding stocks and Bitcoin compared to his Democratic opponent, while a Kamala Harris presidency would bring little more relief to housing costs, according to the latest Bloomberg poll.
The stock market, up about 22% so far in 2024, is more likely to gain steam under Trump than Harris. About 38% of the 350 respondents to the Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse poll see earnings accelerating a year from now under the Republican nominee versus 13% under the Democrat.
That said, close to half of investors expect the market to accelerate or maintain its current strong pace under Harris, and 59% predict such a performance under Trump.
Elections tend to have limited, if any, long-term impact on markets. Deutsche Bank AG strategists led by Jim Reid noted that 13 of the last 15 US presidents have overseen annual stock returns of between 10% and 17% during their tenures, regardless of their party affiliations.
Stocks also tend to rise more after elections as uncertainties fade. Over the past eight elections, the S&P 500 rose an average of 6.6% in the six months after Election Day, compared with a 1.5% gain six months earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“Market performance has more to do with economic fundamentals and the outlook for earnings than it does with who's in the White House,” said Megan Horneman, chief investment officer at Verdence Capital Advisors.
Read: What the US election means for markets
A Harris victory is seen as more positive for potential homebuyers. of average mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.54%, Freddie Mac said in a statement Thursday, the highest since early August. The median estimate for that rate at the end of a Harris term would be 5.5%, according to poll participants, and 5.9% under Trump.
Mortgage rates tend to track the 10-year Treasury yield and are a big factor in housing affordability. Many potential buyers have been stuck on the sidelines in recent years waiting for borrowing costs to come down. Meanwhile, sellers with mortgages of 3% or below have been reluctant to move and take on more expensive debt.
Read: Houses, cars, kids, and colleges tell the horror story of the US middle class
Higher home prices and rising stocks help increase wealth for many Americans. Gold, held by some as a haven asset, has also rallied, gaining about a third so far in 2024.
A year from now, about 57% of those polled expect the price of gold to be even higher if Trump wins, compared to 45% who expect it after a Harris win.
Bitcoinmeanwhile, it is expected to rise to a new record above $80,000 by the end of the year if Trump wins, according to the median estimate of those surveyed. The valuation under a Harris win was around $65,000, down from Bitcoin's recent high of around $67,000.
The MLIV Pulse survey was conducted Oct. 21-25 among Bloomberg News terminal and online readers worldwide who chose to engage with the survey, and included portfolio managers, economists and retail investors. Terminal users can register for future surveys here.
To contact the authors of this story:
Suzanne Woolley in New York at (email protected)
Ye Xie in New York at (email protected)