On election day, an anonymous trader named “Trump whale“I was lucky. Or maybe it was more than luck.
Not only did he predict that Donald Trump would win the presidencybut he also bet heavily that Trump would win the popular vote and triumph in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Trump Whale, who calls himself Théo and is a French national, was so confident that he bet more than $30 million of his own money through crypto betting site Polymarket, according to Wall Street Journal.
How much did Theo earn?
Théo used four anonymous accounts on the site to place bets, with the usernames Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie. At the time of writing, Theo4 and Fredi9999 are ranked first and second the most profitable accounts of all time in Polymarket; Princesses Caro and Michie are in eighth and fourteenth place respectively.
Bloomberg estimates that Théo will make a profit of 48 million dollars of these four accounts based on election results.
How the 'Neighbor Effect' Helped 'Trump Ball' Win Big
Théo told the WSJ that he had experience working as a trader and that his bets were really bets against the validity of US polling data – he looked at US polls over the summer and judged them to be leaning towards Harris.
In Théo's words, the polls didn't take into account two effects: the “scared Trump voter effect” and the “neighbor effect.”
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The “shy Trump voter effect” refers to Trump supporters who don't want to participate in polls or are reluctant to directly express their support for Trump.
The “neighbor effect” was Théo's solution to the problem: instead of asking in a poll who the voter supports, the “neighbor effect” asks them who they think their neighbors are supporting. The question may indirectly indicate the true preferences of the voter.
Théo told the WSJ that he commissioned his own private surveys that took into account the neighbor effect — and unlike major pollshis poll results showed overwhelming, “surprising” support for Trump.
The survey results helped inform Théo's bets.
Polymarket saw more than 3.7 billion dollars generally spent on presidential election betting.
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