Banking, crypto and small-cap industrial ETFs rally after Trump win


Donald Trump won the 2024 US presidential election by a decisive margin for a second term. His Republican Party will hold a majority in the US Senate and – at the time of this report – appears to have a majority in the US House of Representatives as well.

On November 6, 2024, the day after the elections, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) increased by 2.5%. Prices of ETFs reflecting multiple sectors (such as banking, cryptocurrencies and domestically focused small-cap industries) were evaluated that day.

Bank ETFs benefit from the possibility of weaker regulation

Bank ETFs rallied the day after the current election, as Republicans have historically favored less regulation of financial institutions and been less tough on antitrust. The Trump administration could weaken the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and limit efforts like limiting late fees on credit cards. of Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB)which holds large banking shares, rose 10.7% on November 6. Another ETF that was rated on the day was iShares US Broker-Dealers & Exchanges ETF (IAI)which increased by 7.5%. It provides targeted exposure to capital markets businesses, including M&A-focused banks like Evercore, Lazard and Moelis & Company, which could benefit from an administration that is less focused on antitrust actions.

Table 1: Top 10 holdings in KBWB and IAI



Crypto ETFs are likely to benefit from supportive stewardship

Trump has made his support of crypto a pillar of his political agenda, using it to appeal to young people and tech entrepreneurs. His stated support is a positive signal for the crypto ecosystem, especially given that top politicians in the incoming administration are pro-crypto. Incoming Vice President JD Vance is a former venture capitalist with ties to Silicon Valley while incoming Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno is a former crypto entrepreneur. The current leadership of the US Securities and Exchange Commission has taken enforcement actions against Coinbase Global and Binance, but SEC Chairman Gary Gensler is likely to be replaced by a more crypto-friendly administrator.

Table 2 summarizes some of the ETFs that offer spot and equity-based exposure to the cryptocurrency category. of iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) AND Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHE) increased by 9.8% and 11.2%, respectively, on November 6. Meanwhile, based on capital CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI) AND VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (DAPP) increased by 17.8% and 17.4% respectively.

Table 2: Crypto ETFs based on country and US equity


Import tariffs could benefit small-cap industrial ETFs

Small-cap ETFs, which tend to hold stocks of domestically oriented businesses, rallied after the election results were announced. of iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) rose 5.8% on November 6. That was driven by expectations that market breadth could improve after a period when mega-cap tech stocks like NVIDIA Corp. have boosted earnings and returns in the United States.

During the campaign, Trump suggested he would impose a 10% tariff on all imported goods and a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports. If the tariffs are imposed, it could hurt lower-cost retailers like Five Below, Dollar General and Dollar Tree. However, it can benefit ETFs that hold small-cap firms that manufacture and sell domestically. of First Trust RBA American Industrial Renaissance ETF (AIRR) AND Topic American Reshoring ETF (RSHO) increased by 7.9% and 6.4%, respectively, a day after the elections. These ETFs hold replenishment and domestically focused industries such as Eaton, Mueller Industries and Applied Industrial Technologies.

Looking Forward

The US market, including sectors such as banking, small-cap and crypto industries, reacted positively to Trump's election. Whether this gathering can be held in 2025 when the new administration takes over remains to be seen. ETF investors will be watching closely to see which of the policy proposals made on the campaign trail will actually be implemented.



Aniket Ullal is SVP, ETF Data and Analytics for CFRA, one of the world's largest providers of independent investment research.



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