For years, I kept a small piece of paper taped to my office wall that read:
“It often sounds smart to be negative. But it almost always pays to be positive.”
Negativity often masquerades as intellect. Seeing the glass half empty is perceived as analytical, careful and sophisticated. It's a sales technique that captivates because we want to believe there is a perfect solution—even when we know there isn't. For one to study every possible risk and prepare for the worst, it seems wise when considering a financial plan.
However, experience reveals that consistently experiencing a dire prophecy is exceedingly rare. Instead, optimism tends to win in the long run. However, we see time in short increments and judge success – or failure – too quickly. Hence the fixation on negativity.
Finding balance during market gyrations
Myopic Loss Aversion refers to an investor's tendency to fixate on short-term losses rather than the potential for long-term gains. This tendency is exacerbated by frequent checking of account balances because, simply put, investors experience more volatility when they see more frequent movements.
Consequently, this behavior leads individuals to choose overly conservative investments. They prioritize avoiding perceived immediate risk over the pursuit of the highest possible returns over a longer time horizon. Expanding your time horizon can contextualize negative short-term outcomes as temporary setbacks.
The inherent volatility of capital markets means that withdrawals are not merely possible, but a guaranteed aspect of investing. Lack of understanding of the quantitative impact that a market pullback has on your capital needs is a major reason most investors can respond emotionally during times of stress. Anyone who disguises “tips” as an ability to predict an impending recession or pullback, allowing those who follow them to get out of the way at the right time, is overestimating their ability to accurately time the market. Investors tend to sold out of the market very early AND Buy back IN too late.
There is often a significant difference between your perceived risk tolerance, what you think or hope you can handle, and the actual volatility capacity you can handle. Those who invest based on perceived risk tolerance alone tend not to understand the math behind a drawdown's impact on achieving goals, resulting in a heightened emotional reaction to market gyrations.
Conversely, those who incorporate their capacity for volatility into their portfolio construction are significantly less prone to investment strategies vulnerable to a stock market pullback that will disrupt their plans. In other words, these investors can see a forest of positivity through the trees of negativity.
Negativity hurts growth potential
Bias towards negative reviews, while tempting, can lead to overly cautious or pessimistic financial decisions because we give more weight to the impact of negative events than positive ones—after all, the sting that comes with a loss tends to weigh us down more than the euphoria that comes with a win.
This phenomenon is a deep-rooted human trait that is difficult to combat. Of course, optimism in investing is not about ignoring risks, but recognizing the potential for growth and recovery despite the inevitable downturns. It is essential to recognize that the long-term trends of the US stock market historically they have been positive despite periodic periods of volatility, with stocks showing gains over decades.
Holding a negative opinion can create an environment of persistent paralysis or prolonged periods of risk aversion, ultimately hindering your ability to achieve your goals. A positive outlook empowers investors to weather market cycles, benefiting from compound interest and growth.
While caution and diligence are valuable attributes, maintaining an overall positive outlook is essential to successfully navigating the investment world. In the long run, it almost always pays to be positive.
John Straus Jr. CFP, is a partner and co-founder of NewEdge Wealth